Fantasy Football Sleepers, Busts & Predictions: 2026 Washington Commanders
· Yahoo Sports
In 2012, Washington had an exciting Konami Code rookie QB it had drafted second overall who won Offensive Rookie of the Year over, among others, a first overall pick quarterback who was seen as a generational prospect. The team made a surprise run to the playoffs. But that quarterback got hurt, and the team fell to a terrible record the next year. In 2024, Washington had an exciting Konami Code rookie QB it had drafted second overall who won Offensive Rookie of the Year over, among others, a first overall pick quarterback who was seen as a generational prospect. The team made a surprise run to the playoffs. But that quarterback got hurt, and the team fell to a terrible record the next year. I’m definitely not the first person to compare Robert Griffin III’s first two years in the NFL to Jayden Daniels’, but it’s fairly crazy how much they overlap so far. And in Griffin’s third year, he missed seven games as the team went 4-12 and finished in last place. That doesn’t mean Daniels is consigned to the same fate. But any Washington fans reading the last few paragraphs probably had their blood pressure rise a few points.
2026 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Washington Commanders
Sleeper: Kaytron Allen, RB
There are zero running backs on Washington’s roster who is a well-rounded back right now. There is only one who could be, and it’s Allen. Jacory Croskey-Merritt was fine on the ground last year. Not great, but fine. Two games with 100 yards last year, multiple touchdowns in each of those games. Those were his two top-10 finishes last year, and he had two more top-20 finishes … but only one other top-30 week. He had 13 targets in total on the season, none in the last six weeks. He’s plain and simply not a receiving back. The team signed Rachaad White and Jerome Ford this offseason. White’s an excellent receiving back but not great on the ground. Ford is just a guy, as is holdover Jeremy McNichols. And then there’s Allen, the Commanders’ sixth-round pick in April. The fact that he hung around until the sixth tells you the league wasn’t all in on Allen. But he topped 1,100 yards each of the last two years at Penn State, and he had at least enough receiving work that you could see him contributing on that end in the NFL. In the deepest leagues, he’s worth a late flyer. In normal leagues, it’s fine to let him go undrafted, but monitor his status, because he could be a slick waiver pickup.
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Bust: Jayden Daniels, QB
The biggest knock on Daniels entering the league was that his size and playing style lent themselves to injury, and if he adjusted to correct for that he wouldn’t have enough rushing to be a Konami Code quarterback. The fact that he made it through his rookie year mostly intact (he did miss a big chunk of two games to injury) counts as a data point, but the initial concerns still exist. If you want to chalk the dislocated elbow from last year up as a fluke, I won’t argue that point. It’s hard to credit that one to Daniels’ playing style. But he sprained his left knee on a scramble earlier in the year, and he strained a hamstring in another game. Those, and his rib fracture at the end of a 46-yard run in his rookie year, were all a product of him running the ball recklessly (and I use that word both as a compliment and a criticism). “Be careful with him, he’s injury prone” simply because a player has had injuries is a bad approach. “Be careful with him, his body and approach make him injury prone” still isn’t foolproof, but it certainly has more defense. On top of that, while Terry McLaurin is a decent WR1 (if healthy) and Chig Okonkwo is a popular breakout candidate at tight end, this remains one of the weakest collection of pass catchers in the league, probably better than the likes of Cleveland and Miami but still a bottom-six or seven unit. Maybe if third-rounder Antonio Williams pops or if Brandon Aiyuk does eventually find his way to San Francisco (and can be relatively sane in the process) we can readdress this, but right now what we have is a quarterback who needs to run less (to protect himself) and who has a subpar group of pass catchers to work with. Taking that at QB4 (his current ADP) scared the crap out of me.
Bold Prediction: Luke McCaffrey Is Washington’s WR2
The top two pass catchers from last year’s Washington team (Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz) are gone, replaced by Chig Okonkwo, rookie Antonio Williams and (maybe) (eventually) (I guess) Brandon Aiyuk. There’s not a guaranteed producer in there, with the possible exception of Okonkwo. At receiver, the WR1 is Terry McLaurin as long as he’s healthier than he was last year. After that, we have Williams, has-beens/never-weres like Treylon Burks, Dyami Brown and Van Jefferson, and then McCaffrey. Christian’s brother was the team’s third-round pick in 2024 but has thus far mostly failed to launch in the NFL, with 371 yards and 3 touchdowns through two seasons. That said, his two seasons have been very different. As a rookie, he had 168 yards on 18 receptions and 24 targets in 17 games — per FTN Stats & Charting, that worked out to 0.8 yards per route run. He was overmatched and looked like an immediate bust. Last year, he only had 15 targets and 11 receptions, but he took it for 203 yards (a much better 2.1 YPRR) and his 3 career touchdowns. And unlike his rookie year, he did that work last year in basically half a season — he missed eight games with a broken collarbone and played a combined 5 offensive snaps in two other games. Brandon Aiyuk might change things in Washington — though given how unpredictable everything about him is right now, that’s hard to believe. There are Stefon Diggs rumors as well. Anyone who shows up in Washington could upset the apple cart. But if I’m picking my Commanders WR2 right now (and even considering the chances of Aiyuk), give me McCaffrey, the 2023 American Conference receiving touchdown leader, now available in 2026 fantasy drafts as the WR86.