TST Best Bets: November 1, 2026
· Yahoo Sports
Week 8 of the NFL season is here, and last week we got back over .500 in this column with a 7-5 week.
This Sunday slate features several pivotal AFC matchups for future playoff seeding. The Chiefs can take a commanding lead in the AFC West race if they can pull off the sweep over the Broncos, while the Ravens’ chances of catching Cleveland and Pittsburgh in the AFC North would dwindle dramatically with a loss to Buffalo.
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Lock of the Week: Jacksonville Jaguars -10 over the Indianapolis Colts
Rundown: Jacksonville’s loss in London to Houston prior to the bye week seemed to reopen the AFC South division race, as the Texans were coming off back-to-back wins and an elite offensive performance.
A week later, the Jaguars return from their bye with Houston having fallen to 2-5 after getting carved up by J.J. McCarthy, and Indianapolis in the middle of a fire sale after firing former general manager Chris Ballard.
A win here would tighten Jacksonville’s already commanding grip on the division. The Colts have traded away two of their biggest names in Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner, and with the team sitting at 2-5, it’s fair to wonder how much urgency is left in Indianapolis.
Buffalo Bills -3 over the Baltimore Ravens
Oct 18, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws in the fourth quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.David Brytus-Imagn Images
Oct 18, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws in the fourth quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.
Rundown: This is a “gotta have it” spot for the Ravens, who are coming off back-to-back losses, but I don’t like what I’ve seen from their defense in recent weeks.
Lost amid the focus on Lamar Jackson’s injury status is how much the Baltimore defense has underperformed this season, especially given the talent the team added in the offseason and the excitement around hiring defensive-minded head coach Jesse Minter.
Baltimore’s defense ranks 18th in EPA per play allowed and now faces a Buffalo offense that ranks among the league’s best across nearly every major metric.
I trust Buffalo to win if this turns into a shootout. And that’s before accounting for how Jackson will look in his first game back from what was reportedly a high ankle sprain.
I expect some early growing pains from Baltimore’s offense, and that could be enough to put the Ravens in a hole they can’t climb out of against Buffalo.
Tennessee Titans +12.5 over the Cincinnati Bengals
Rundown: Last week’s game against the Browns was everything a Titans fan could ask for.
Cam Ward showed real growth, making several well-timed throws into tight windows against a solid defense. And the Titans still lost in the end, preserving their draft position for later this season.
Fresh off a dominant win over Baltimore, Cincinnati feels like a team that could let go of the rope early before rallying to escape this trap game with a close win.
Dallas Cowboys -7 over the Arizona Cardinals
Oct 26, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) makes a diving catch during the second quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field.Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Oct 26, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) makes a diving catch during the second quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field.
Rundown: The Cardinals defense is the worst in the league.
While the Cowboys are known to drop games like this all the time, such as last year when their defense got carved up by Jacoby Brissett in an upset win for the Cardinals, the advantage this Dallas aerial attack should have over Arizona’s outmatched secondary should keep this from being a close one.
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 over the Detroit Lions
Rundown: Getting more than a field goal with an undefeated team this late into the season is a rarity, but it speaks to the disrespect the overall betting public is giving Minnesota.
The Vikings offense has been subpar, but Brian Flores’ blitz heavy defense will keep this a low-scoring affair.
All it takes is a couple big coverage breakdowns in the Detroit secondary to give Minnesota enough chances to keep pace with the Lions offense, who I predict to have its worst outing of the season this Sunday.
I’m not guaranteeing Minnesota makes it out of this divisional matchup still undefeated, but I expect a close one in Detroit that comes down to a last-second field goal.
Las Vegas Raiders over the New York Jets
Rundown: The Raiders have faced a murderer’s row of opponents in their last four games, and it resulted in a four-game losing streak.
The luster of a 3-0 start to begin Klint Kubiak’s tenure has certainly begun to wear off, but this still is a very solid offense who should have no trouble moving the ball against a Jets defense that just got 28 points dropped on them by Miami.
I expect Vegas to roll to an easy road victory in this one and reinstate themselves into the playoff conversation.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 over the Cleveland Browns
Rundown: The Steelers and Browns being atop the AFC North at the midway point of the season wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card, and it feels like the general betting public is just waiting for the other shoe to drop for both of these teams.
In their first meeting this season, the Browns defense was able to make Aaron Rodgers show his age in the pocket, but the 42-year old signal caller has strung together several solid performances since then.
These teams are too close in caliber to predict a sweep, and I predict Rodgers to show out in his second attempt against this Cleveland defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 over the Atlanta Falcons
Rundown: Tampa Bay’s run game looked dominant last week, and that gives me confidence the Bucs can keep this offense moving against Atlanta. They ran all over Carolina and should be able to lean on that ground attack again here.
The NFC South is still wide open, and I don’t see any team pulling away from the pack at this point in the season. Tampa Bay has a chance to make up ground with another divisional win.
I’ll take the Bucs to handle business at home and win by more than a field goal.
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 over the Los Angeles Chargers
Oct 25, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) celebrates with wide receiver Konata Mumpfield (4) following a touchdown during the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.Mandatory Credit: David Brytus-Imagn Images
Oct 25, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) celebrates with wide receiver Konata Mumpfield (4) following a touchdown during the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.
Rundown: The Rams need this one. At 3-4, they can’t afford to let a winless Chargers team coming off a bye slow their climb back into the NFC West race.
I expect Los Angeles to come out sharper after the week off, but the pressure is squarely on the Chargers. If they lose coming out of the bye and fall to 0-7, I’d expect some people to be out of a job by Monday.
I’ll lay the points with the Rams and expect them to take care of business.
Denver Broncos +1 over the Kansas City Chiefs
Sep 20, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) hits Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High.Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Sep 20, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) hits Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High.
Rundown: The Broncos have done a good job recovering from their brutal season-opening loss to the Chiefs, but another defeat in this rematch would undo a lot of that progress.
A win, though, would put Denver atop the division and within striking distance of the conference’s No. 1 seed.
Bo Nix’s inconsistent play has drawn plenty of attention, but Vance Joseph’s defense has been a major reason for the Broncos’ three-game winning streak.
Kansas City’s receiving corps lacks players who consistently beat man coverage, and its banged-up offensive line could have trouble against an elite defense. The Chiefs just got shut down by Seattle, and Denver has the personnel to create similar problems.
I expect the Broncos’ defense to set the tone and help them earn a much-needed win at home.
New England Patriots -7 over the Miami Dolphins
Rundown: We said it last weekend, but these are exactly the kinds of matchups Mike Vrabel’s Patriots have handled well over the past two seasons.
The flip side of last year’s “weak schedule” criticism is that New England rarely lets its guard down in games like this. I expect the Patriots to roll against a Miami team coming off its first win of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles +6 over the Washington Commanders
Rundown: Neither team has given me much reason to trust them, but six points feels like too much in a divisional game. Philadelphia already beat Washington once this season, and I’ll take the Eagles to keep this one close enough to cover.