4 keys to a Lions victory over the Vikings in Week 8
· Yahoo Sports
The Detroit Lions (4-2) and Minnesota Vikings (6-0) will meet in Week 8 in an NFC North divisional clash. The Vikings are the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL, and while their defense is playing at an elite level, they’ve yet to face an offense like the Lions, making this a fantastic strength-on-strength showdown.
“Minnesota is playing outstanding football,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said earlier in the week. “(Head coach) Kevin (O’Connell)‘s doing a hell of a job. (Defensive coordinator) Brian (Flores) is doing a hell of a job. This thing, they play very complementary football. […] I’ve got a lot of respect for this team, the way they play, but we’re looking forward to this; this will be good.”
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Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and predict how the Lions will earn a victory over the Vikings in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
This week’s prediction preview is sponsored by the folks at FanDuel Sportsbook, who currently have the Lions listed at +1800 to win this year’s Super Bowl and are currently 3.5-point favorites in Week 8.
Vikings base schemeFor a detailed look at the opposing scheme, check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 8 preview: Breaking down the Vikings’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Prediction 1: Counter creativity with creativityThe Vikings enter this game undefeated, but outside of their NFC North games against the Packers and Bears, their opponents have been bottom-of-the-league teams, totaling seven wins and 20 losses combined. Now, they’re headed into the toughest part of their schedule, beginning with the Lions’ elite offense—the first top-10 DVOA offense they’ve faced this season.
The Vikings’ success is built almost entirely on their defense, which ranks in the top 10 in virtually every meaningful defensive statistic and is top one or two in most of them. Over six games, they’ve suffocated teams with their aggressiveness (their 69% blitz rate is over 20% higher than the next-closest team), and with a veteran unit that returns most of its starters, they rarely make mistakes.
I go into more detail in my breakdown of the Vikings defense in the article link above, but at their core, the Vikings are so problematic because of their creative blitzing and quarters zone coverage. On most traditional downs, the Vikings will deploy a base 3-4 defense and line up seven or eight defenders in the box and then “double mug” blitz them, meaning bring an overloaded pressure on a single side of the offensive line or straight up the middle (double A-gap). The goal is to disguise where the blitz will come from and gain an extra blitzer in one area, while unexpectedly dropping players into coverage in the opposite area.
The Vikings are so efficient at disguising their intentions and getting to the quarterback quickly that they lead the NFL in pressures on 49% of pass-rushing attempts, 21 sacks, and a 10% sack rate.
While the Vikings are operating at a scary level, it’s not a defense that is unfamiliar to the Lions and quarterback Jared Goff. In previous seasons, Goff has done well to manage the blitz, especially when he has a healthy offensive line. In games where Goff has succeeded, he’s found creative ways to offset the Vikings’ creativity, and his ability to stay calm under duress—he’s currently the best quarterback in the NFL vs. the blitz, with an EPA of 0.32—has led to success in the six games this season.
Here’s an excerpt from NextGenStats’ game insights:
“Jared Goff has been sacked once and completed 15 of 19 passes for 162 yards and three touchdowns across 20 max blitzes faced this season (i.e., 6 or more pass rushers), resulting in a career-high 78.9% completion percentage. [….] Goff has faced a max blitz on at least six dropbacks in each of his past six meetings with the Vikings during the Brian Flores era dating back to 2023, a threshold he has reached in just three of 51 other games played over that span.”
In recent weeks, purposefully or not, we’ve already seen the Lions testing some concepts to beat an overloaded blitz. Concepts like spreading out five wide, or shifting a tight end into the backfield in a fullback role, will help the Lions offense create quick outlets or adjust their protection. The Lions have also sprinkled in some 21 personnel (two running backs and one tight end), where Sione Vaki stays in to protect, allowing Jahmyr Gibbs to be an outlet for Goff’s passing game.
While the Lions will need to be creative with their running backs and tight ends, their receivers will likely help Goff produce downfield. Last week, we saw the Lions deploy Amon-Ra St. Brown more on the outside, and he caught seven of his nine targets for 109 yards against the Packers. Expect more of that in this game, as the Lions will want to get St. Brown isolated vs. the Vikings’ zone, giving him more space to operate. Also, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them give St. Brown some choice routes, where he can adjust the depth based on who the Vikings blitz.
As NextGenStats also pointed out, the Lions have also found a separation advantage by lining up St.Brown and Jameson Williams on the same side of the formation:
“The Lions’ passing offense has been more explosive when they align to the same side through seven weeks, as they have averaged 8.0 yards per play with a 18.3% explosive-play rate on those snaps.”
By pairing them, Williams can stretch the zone deep and force the defensive backs to adjust to his speed, opening things underneath for St. Brown. If the defense takes the underneath route, then they’ll have to try and stick with Williams one-on-one deep. With the Vikings’ philosophy of limiting explosive plays, look for the Lions to stress their zone and take what they have underneath.
The Lions offense vs. the Vikings defense may be the NFL’s premier matchup this week.
Prediction 2: Pin-and-pullThe Lions won’t be able to rely only on their passing attack in this game; they’ll also need to get their rushing attack going. Detroit tends to lean on its outside zone blocking scheme, but it’ll also need to be creative and unpredictable by incorporating other concepts it’s had success with.
The chart below (adapted from NFL writer Ray Carpenter’s design) shows the EPA from the Lions rushing offense when running in specific directions vs. the Vikings’ EPA in defending those running plays.
No surprise, the Lions are finding most of their rushing success behind left tackle Penei Sewell, and it lines up with where the Vikings have been weakest. But the Lions won’t simply want to run behind their All-Pro all game; they’ll need to get creative too.
With the Vikings lining up so many defenders on the line of scrimmage, the Lions will want to attack those edges, and the pin-and-pull concept can cool off some of Minnesota’s aggressiveness. Let’s look at the final offensive play from the Packers game to see an ideal example of the Lions deploying a pin-and-pull concept to get outside leverage and open a massive rushing lane for Jahmyr Gibbs.
On this third-and-6 play, the Lions run a toss-left to Gibbs with the tight end (Sam LaPorta) and wide receiver (Isaac TeSlaa) cracking down (“pin”) on the Packers’ two outside edge players. In concert with the “pin,” the Lions “pull” Sewell and left guard Christian Mahogany under and outside left to get out in front of Gibbs. Additionally, the Lions put St. Brown in motion, and he seals the opposite edge of the hole by blocking the corner. Here’s the pre-snap look with the blocking assignments in red:
And now the results after the snap with the “pin” circled and the pull in solid red arrows:
Prediction 3: Put Vikings offense behind the sticksWhile the Vikings defense has played lights out, the offense has struggled. Despite being billed as “the answer to the Vikings deep ball problem,” quarterback Kyler Murray has been anything but.
Heading into this game, the Vikings offense ranks 30th in DVOA; Murray is throwing for 162.3 yards per game (29th), and the team ranks 25th in explosive plays. Murray’s average depth of target (ADOT) is 7.13 (30th), and his Aar yards to sticks (how close to the first-down marker he targets his passes) is -2.97 yards, 37th among quarterbacks with at least 50 passes this season.
Most of their drives fizzle out quickly—they average 0.259 first downs per play, last in the NFL—because they throw short and rely on their skill players to gain yardage. The issue is that defenses have caught on and are shrinking the box, preventing the Vikings’ skill players from gaining yards after the catch (YAC)—they have 519 YAC this season, 31st in the NFL—which often puts the Vikings offense behind the sticks.
As a result, the Vikings don’t typically have sustained drives, and through six games, they’ve had the fewest trips to the red zone in the NFL — just 13 trips (for reference, the Lions have 27)—and scored just four offensive touchdowns in the last four games combined.
Look for the Lions to follow suit with the Vikings’ previous opponents, shrink the workable area for the offense, take away the intermediate area of the field, and make their tackles when Murray throws short—currently, the Lions lead the NFL in missed tackle rate (9.0%) and fewest missed tackle yards allowed (153).
If the Lions can find early down success and get the Vikings behind the sticks, they’ll get off the field.
Prediction 4: This is the game to unleash the blitzOne way the Lions can find early down success against the Vikings offense is to utilize the blitz.
The Vikings offensive line has done well in pass protection this season, allowing only 65 pressures (fourth best) through six games and averaging a 32.7% pressure rate (11th best). However, despite the few pressures allowed, the sacks have come easier; Vikings quarterbacks have been sacked 18 times this year (ninth most) at a 9.9% rate (third highest). Teams have recognized this pattern and blitzed Minnesota 36.3% of passing plays, the seventh highest rate this season.
Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is moved around the defensive line, but he lines up across from the right tackle on most plays, meaning he is expected to square off with Vikings Brian O’Neill. Over his career, Hutchinson has a 15% pressure rate vs. O’Neill (slightly above his career average of 13.9%), but the Vikings, like most teams, will likely give O’Neill help by double-teaming or chipping Hutchinson. If the Vikings dedicate extra attention to Hutchinson, it will open up opportunities for the other defensive linemen, and if the Lions want to crank up the aggression, there is value in sending an extra defender and pressuring Murray.
This is another way for the Lions to put the Vikings offense in an early hole, get them behind the sticks, and the Lions offense back on the field.
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