How often do teams with a 2-0 lead in MLB playoffs win the series?
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The Milwaukee Brewers are sitting pretty with a 2-0 lead in the National League Championship Series over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers remain an absolute powerhouse, but it does bring us to this question:
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How often do teams with a 2-0 lead go on to win the series?
(But be honest, the real phrasing of the question in your mind is, "How often do teams with a 2-0 lead blow that lead?")
Good news for the Brewers. MLB statistician Sarah Langs crunched the numbers and noted that, in all best-of-seven postseason series, the team with a 2-0 lead has gone on to win the series 79 of 95 times, a rate of 83%.
Looking just at the current 2-3-2 format, teams with a 2-0 lead at home have won 46 of 57 times (81%).
Those are good numbers, but obviously there are no assurances. The Brewers must win at least one of three in Los Angeles, after all, to guarantee that they aren't trailing in the series by the time they play again at American Family Field.
If you want to look for some unfortunate examples, you have recent history.
The Seattle Mariners went up, 2-0, on the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Championship Series last year – in Toronto, no less. But the Blue Jays won the next two road games, then won Games 6 and 7 at home to secure the seven-game series win.
It also happened in 2023; the Philadelphia Phillies took a 2-0 lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS, including a 10-0 win in Game 2, but then dropped two of three on the road before Arizona came back and won Games 6 and 7 for the 4-3 series win.
The Texas Rangers also took a 2-0 lead on the road at Houston in the ALCS in 2023 and then needed to win in seven, with the road team winning every game of the series.
The Milwaukee Bucks, of course, went down, 2-0, in the NBA Finals in 2021 before bouncing back to win the series in six games.
But you can just as easily point to the Dodgers going up 2-0 last year against the Brewers in the NLCS … and then winning 4-0. Or the last time the Dodgers lost an NLCS, in 2021, when the Atlanta Braves took a 2-0 lead and the Dodgers fought back to take Game 3, but the Braves took Game 4 and eventually won in six.
No matter what the numbers or examples say, Brewers fans will certainly be biting their nails again when the series resumes Wednesday, Oct. 14, in Los Angeles.
But the math, at least for now, is on Milwaukee's side.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: How often do teams with a 2-0 lead in MLB playoffs win the series?