The Christian Watson contract is a great deal for the Packers
· Yahoo Sports
I’ve already seen so much online analysis of the Green Bay Packers’ contract extension with Christian Watson that basically boils down to “duhhhh BIG NUMBER, MAN HURT, NEVER HIT 700 YARDS, MAYBE I DOWN MY LOW T MEDS BEFORE CALLING DIVORCE ATTORNEY AND SNEAKING IN NINE HOLES.” And just, no. It’s not that much money, Watson is a very good receiver as is, and his remaining upside is as high as any receiver in the league.
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First, this basically adds up to a five-year, $116 million contract with a ton of flexibility baked in. You can readall about the financials from smarter people than I here. And I’m not here to discuss financials, I’m here to tell you about Christian Watson the player, maybe the league’s most underrated dominant force.
You may not believe that to be true and I get it because the individual members of the Packer passing game operate mostly in secret due to their comically (and I would argue harmfully) slow pace, which keeps everyone but Josh Jacobs and Tucker Kraft off fantasy radars. The one actual knock on Watson is his injury history, and so the combination of lack of availability and the slowest offense in the league depresses both his (and everyone else’s) individual game stats, and his cumulative stats. And maybe he’ll get hurt again and this will all be a huge waste of money, but injuries are just a fact of football life; but hey, maybe he won’t! And if not, well, on a per-play basis, basically no one is better than Watson. Really!
Over the past two seasons (min:100 targets), Watson is second only to Alec Pierce in Yards per Target (Tucker Kraft is fifth). Y/T is the best simple statistic for evaluating receivers because, unlike yards per completion, it includes the balls that were intended for the receiver but not caught. You may be skeptical though, because Alec Pierce, while a fine deep receiver, isn’t THAT good, and you’re right, we can do a bit better. Exiting the simple stats, we have Yards per Route Run, which also factors in a receiver’s ability to draw targets when he’s out there. Alec Pierce ranks 16th with 2.10 Y/RR, while Watson is still solidly in the top 10 at 2.28, just behind Drake London and Bears rookie Luther Burden.
But we can do even better with Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), FTN’s proprietary efficiency statistic that also adjusts for the quality of opposition faced. There, Watson finished second in 2025 at 35.7% over average, beating out Puka Nacua, JSN, and a host of other awesome receivers. (Note: On the FTN website he’s first, but per Aaron Schatz, he is actually second. Either way, this is really splitting hairs, and Watson has been awesome! During the offseason there are tweaks and refinements to such databases.)
FTN also has a useful statistic that rewards both volume and efficiency called Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), expressed in terms of yards instead of a percentage above or below average. Despite missing seven games last season, Watson still finished ninth overall (among 177 qualifying receivers) in DYAR with 212.5, just four yards beyond Houston’s Nico Collins, who played 15 games. In fact, no other receiver in the top 15 of DYAR played fewer than 15 games except for Watson. Watson also possessed the 11th highest receiver grade per PFF last year. There are a LOT of statistics that paint Watson as much closer to a top ten receiver.
And so yes, there are some concerns with Watson, but in the NFL, risk is just part of the game. Any dope can point out that he might get hurt. The part people miss is that when he’s not hurt, Christian Watson is not just a guy. He is one of the best receivers in football on a per play basis right now. If he can actually stay on the field AND the Packers lean more into their very good passing game, he can still be one of the best receivers in the league. Very few people move like Watson, and the 10-RAS athleticism still shows up. He’s improved technically every single year of his career and just turned 27 on May 12th. He’s productive now, and few players still have as much upside.
Paying him like a borderline top-20 wide receiver when he has already been outperforming that ranking puts this deal well on its way to being a bargain.