Northern Iowa at Michigan State: Three Best Player Prop Bets
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I predicted the Jordan Scott breakout game against Duke in a massively watched matchup. Although I was right about Scott being a menace on the court, with the announcers and fans unable to stop talking about him, he didn't produce on the stat sheet the way I expected.
Scott's five points fell short of the 9.5-point total I recommended taking the over on. He also finished with just one assist, which was Michigan State's first assist of the game, and never recorded another. That left us under the 1.5 assists prop I recommended.
Still, we managed to salvage some money with John Blackwell knocking down four three-pointers, comfortably clearing the 2.5 mark I recommended.
Now we take our .333 winning percentage into another matchup that should feature plenty of Spartan points and another significant win for the team in green and white.
So, let's dive right into my three favorite player props for tonight's matchup between the Spartans and Panthers at the Breslin Center.
1. Jeremy Fears Over 9.5 Assists (-120)
The first time I bet this prop was the only time Jeremy Fears failed to reach this mark. He has since recorded 11 assists in each of his other two games.
I'm not afraid to go back to the well, especially in a game where Vegas has Michigan State projected to score 91.5 points. There should be plenty of buckets to go around, and Fears typically has his hands involved in nearly every Michigan State scoring possession.
Let's take the low-hanging fruit to start.
2. Jasiah Jervis Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-135)
Two games ago, I told you to take Jervis over 1.5 three-pointers, and he proceeded to knock down four of them.
Last game against Duke, I backed off Jervis just in case the lights were too bright against the No. 2 team in the country. Well, the lights absolutely weren't too bright. In fact, it looked like they could have been even brighter, as Jervis calmly knocked down another two three-pointers and added a very long two-pointer.
Jervis is the best shooter on the Spartans' roster, and once again, in a game where Michigan State is expected to score more than 90 points, he should have a hand in some of that production. I would bet on him calmly knocking down at least two more threes tonight.
3. Jordan Scott Over 6.5 Rebounds (+100)
I'm going back to the Jordan Scott well, this time with a prop that Vegas doesn't even seem particularly confident will hit, offering plus money on the over.
Still, Scott has recorded nine rebounds in each of his last two games.
Scott has been the most Tasmanian Devil-like player on the court for the Spartans this season. His determination and willingness to chase down every loose ball have been jaw-dropping.
Scott has recorded six, nine and nine rebounds over his last three games, averaging eight per contest. For him to need just seven rebounds to cash this prop, especially with plus money attached, makes this an appealing bet.
Maybe Vegas believes Scott will take a step back tonight after giving so much against Duke. I don't believe that will be the case, and I'll gladly take the plus money.
Overall: Three Best Bets
- Jeremy Fears Over 9.5 Assists (-120)
- Jasiah Jervis Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-135)
- Jordan Scott Over 6.5 Rebounds (+100)