The Donald Trump Era in American Politics Is Ending
· Jacobin
The American people delivered an absolute rout against Donald Trump and the GOP last night. Here are five takeaways from the midterm results:1. Trump Owns This DefeatEverything about this defeat points to a different way Donald Trump has weakened the Republican Party.In Texas and South Carolina, he pushed his preferred candidates, Ken Paxton and Darline Graham, for the Senate above the first choices of the state parties. Both were terrible candidates and terrible campaigners who made the Democrats’ job vastly easier. In Florida, he pushed an aggressive gerrymander that energized Democratic voters while failing to net any additional seats for Republicans. Nationwide, the nakedly criminal war on Iran combined with his refusal to even humor voters’ anger at the cost of living weighed down every Republican in the country.Over the last few weeks, Trump implored voters to pretend he was on the ticket. They followed his advice.2. Billionaire Money Wasn’t EnoughOne reason Trump and the rest of the party felt empowered to simply ignore clear signs from the electorate was their massive financial advantage.A few dozen billionaires, including Elon Musk, Miriam Adelson, the Winklevoss brothers, and Ken Griffin, poured truly staggering amounts of money into Republican super PACs. Trump’s personal super PAC, MAGA, Inc., had over $400 million in its account. That was more money than the Democratic Senate super PAC, House super PAC, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Democratic National Committee combined. Most of the Republican financial advantage was spent on the Senate, where the GOP outspent Democrats by about 50 percent.Republicans expected to be able to use this golden horde to simply crush Democrats in states like Texas. It wasn’t nearly enough — a fact that should be heartening to anyone dismayed about the undemocratic effects of big money in politics.3. The Knives Are Going to Come Out for TrumpBecause of the previous two points, Republican politicians are going to turn on Trump quickly.The writing is on the wall for 2028. There is no reason to think that a president whose connection to reality is visibly attenuating with each passing week will be able to turn his popularity around in the next two years. Any Republican with ambitions for the future will be racing to create distance between themselves and the administration.The few Republicans who openly opposed Trump in the last few years, like Ron DeSantis, are already blaming Trump for the defeat and calling for a new direction for the party. Determining that direction will be a messy, conflictual process, with open conflict among different elements of the party. But with every passing day, there will be fewer and fewer reasons for members of the party to continue their obeisance to Trump.4. Democrats Won the Biggest Overall Congressional Majority for Either Party Since the GOP in 2014The size of the Democratic majority is striking. As of Wednesday morning, most projections have the Democrats winning about 245 seats in the House, and fifty-four or fifty-five seats in the Senate. This puts the Democrats in a similar position to the Republicans in 2014, when the GOP expanded on its majority in the House and finally recaptured the Senate from the Democrats.Since the Trump era began, no party has had majorities of this size in both the House and the Senate.In both the House and the Senate, this vastly decreases the leverage available to small minorities of the caucuses. In the Senate, John Fetterman will not be able to block progressive legislation the way Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema were during the Biden administration. Similarly, in the House, even the expanded team of socialist legislators will not come close to providing the margin of victory for the Democratic majority.In this context, Democratic politics will likely reflect the center of gravity of the caucus in each chamber, rather than the power of a few legislators holding strategic veto points.5. The Left Is Continuing to RiseAcross the country, this was a fantastic night for the Left.Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) candidates, as expected, won their general elections in places like New York, Colorado, and Michigan. Moreover, DSA candidates won election to the state house in close races in Kentucky and Florida. Candidates like Troy Jackson and Abdul El-Sayed, who are often associated with DSA despite not being members, also won races that were widely seen as tests for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Angie Nixon, a DSA member who won an upset victory in her primary for Florida’s senate seat, came within a few points of winning in a state most liberals had written off as irredeemably red. Exit polls, meanwhile, showed that three times as many young voters described themselves as democratic socialists as MAGA.DSA’s project has clearly not hit its ceiling yet, and these results show that it is time to take the fight to new battlegrounds.This article originally appeared in Jacobin, a democratic socialist magazine publishing long-form essays and analysis on politics, economics, and culture. Subscribe to the print edition for $20 a year.
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