ESPN’s computer model reveals bold prediction for Ohio State-USC game

Ohio State had a full week to come up with a plan to replace its starting quarterback. Whatever it does should be more than enough to handle a road test at USC on Saturday.

That’s the opinion of the College Football Power Index. ESPN’s algorithmic prediction model sounds very confident in what the Buckeyes can accomplish against the Trojans, even with a new face at the quarterback position.

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FPI projects Buckeyes will dominate Trojans

Oct 17, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) walks off the field with his arm in a sling after the game against the Indiana Hoosiers Merchants Bank Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

The computer model, which simulates games 20,000 times, projects Ohio State to be 13.4 points better than USC. That’s a surprisingly sizable margin for a team heading into a road game without star Julian Sayin.

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The Buckeyes remain one of college football’s strongest teams, but their quarterback uncertainty makes that projection particularly bold ahead of Saturday’s matchup at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Sayin’s absence remains the biggest concern after the quarterback suffered a throwing-arm injury during Ohio State’s 19-15 victory over Indiana on Oct. 17. Sayin, who threw for 2,007 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, is expected to be out indefinitely.

Who’s on deck for the Buckeyes?

The uncertainty is compounded by the fact that head coach Ryan Day has not officially named a starter. As of Thursday, both freshman Luke Fahey and redshirt freshman Tavien St. Clair were preparing to play against USC.

Fahey has completed nine of 13 passes for 203 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions; St. Clair has attempted only seven passes. Neither has demonstrated that he can sustain an offense over a full game against a quality opponent.

Trojans can test Ohio State’s defense

Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

USC also has a capable offense of its own. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,303 yards and 19 touchdowns, while the Trojans average 32.8 points per game. 

Although USC is coming off a 24–7 loss to Wisconsin, its passing game could test Ohio State’s defense if the Buckeyes struggle to maintain possession on the other side.

The counterargument is Ohio State’s defense, which allows just 13.4 points per game, and the presence of star receiver Jeremiah Smith. The Heisman favorite has 984 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Those strengths help explain why the Buckeyes remain heavily favored by predictive models.

Still, a 13-point projection assumes Ohio State can maintain much of its usual efficiency despite a major change at the sport’s most important position.

Until Fahey or St. Clair proves capable of directing the offense for four quarters, that margin looks ambitious. Ohio State is still the better team, but expecting the Buckeyes to win comfortably in their first game without Sayin is a bold call.

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