Five takeaways from UVA football’s last-minute 19-16 loss to Duke
· Yahoo Sports
After having its College Football Playoff dreams crushed last year, Virginia got its chance at redemption Friday night in the long-anticipated rematch of the ACC Championship Game. The last time these teams met, in Charlotte in December, Duke won 27-20 in overtime after a Virginia trick play was intercepted, giving the Blue Devils their first league title since 1962. This time the ‘Hoos were at home, where they had won five straight and looked like a different team. They opened and closed as 2.5-point favorites. This was in spite of the fact that they were still shorthanded, without receivers Kameron Courtney and Rico Flores Jr. and safeties Brandyn Hillman, Ethan Minter and Corey Costner.
For a half, it looked like the crowd would get its revenge. Duke went 78 yards in four plays for a touchdown on its opening drive, but quarterback Walker Eget hurt his hand on the first big throw of that drive and did not return until halftime. Virginia answered with a Jekail Middlebrook direct-snap touchdown, added two Will Bettridge field goals and took a 13-7 lead into the locker room after holding the ball for more than 20 minutes of the first half.
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Eget came back for the second half, and Duke methodically chipped away with two Gavin Strange field goals. Bettridge’s 30-yarder put Virginia back in front 16-13 with three minutes left, but Duke went 75 yards in seven plays and won it on a double pass, with running back Nate Sheppard throwing 28 yards to a wide-open Brody Keefe with 1:14 to play. Strange missed the extra point, and it didn’t matter. Beau Pribula’s last desperation heave was intercepted, dropping Virginia to 4-4 (2-3 ACC), with its first home loss of the season and its first back-to-back losses since the end of 2024.
Here are my five takeaways from the loss.
Virginia’s conservative coaching decisions came back to bite it
Virginia outgained Duke 353-327, won the first-down battle 22-16 and held the ball for 38:47 to Duke’s 21:13. However, Virginia simply refused to deliver the finishing blow.
The first chance to bury Duke came while Eget was sidelined. Redshirt freshman Dan Mahan played the rest of the first half, and Duke’s four drives with him at quarterback went 15 plays for 36 yards and four punts. Virginia scored 13 points over that stretch, but only seven of them came in the end zone. On its second scoring drive, the ‘Hoos got inside the Duke 10, then had to burn a timeout to avoid a delay-of-game penalty on third-and-goal from about the 6, a timeout that would have come in handy at the end of the half. What came out of the timeout was a run up the middle for two yards and a 21-yard field goal, a call that even left the announcers confused. It was the first of several conservative calls that drew questions from the broadcast.
The end of the half was worse. With 37 seconds left, a timeout in hand and third-and-3 in field-goal range, Tony Elliott played for the kick. The crowd booed, and it had reason to. Duke had a backup quarterback, a banged-up secondary and no momentum, and Virginia let it go into the locker room down only six. It was as if Elliott hadn’t even considered the possibility that Eget might not be done for the game and that this game could be won by simply not turning the ball over.
The same caution showed up once again in the fourth quarter. Leading 13-10 and pinned at its own 5, Virginia ran on first down, rolled Pribula out with about two receivers in the pattern for a throwaway, and handed the ball to Xay Davis for a loss on third down. The boos came again. The predictability of the Virginia offense has almost become its calling card.
To play devil’s advocate, in a rare moment of creativity from the offense in the third quarter, Virginia called a double pass that got Middlebrook wide open, but the ball never came out, which is all the more ironic knowing how the game was eventually won. A few plays later, Pribula was sacked and Bettridge’s 47-yard try sailed wide right. Duke ran its own double pass on the final drive, but this time Sheppard connected with a wide-open receiver for the game-winning score. For the second straight meeting, the difference was a trick play, and for the second straight meeting it went Duke’s way.
The defense did all it could, led by Maddox Marcellus and a familiar Kam Robinson
Sheppard came in leading the ACC and ranking third nationally at 136.7 rushing yards per game. He finished with 55 on 15 carries, and 32 of those came on one run on the opening drive. His other 14 carries went for 23 yards. Duke ran for 71 yards as a team, went 2-for-10 on third down and punted six times.
Marcellus was Virginia’s best player. He had four tackles, all solo, two of them for loss, and a pass breakup. He dropped Sheppard behind the line on the first play of Duke’s second drive, and on Duke’s opening drive of the second half, after a 31-yard one-handed catch by Jared Richardson that survived a review, Marcellus broke up a throw into the end zone and then swallowed a Sheppard screen. Duke settled for a field goal. Montino Williams had a strong night too, with five tackles, a pass breakup, a perfectly timed delayed blitz on that same drive and a stop on a third-down draw two yards short of the sticks in the first quarter.
Then there’s Kam Robinson, who finally looked like the old Kam Robinson. Spying Mahan on third-and-6 in the second quarter, he ran him down for his first sack of the season. In the third quarter, he got his hands on a ball that looked like it was going to be caught, batted it into the air and caught it himself for his first interception of the season. Both plays ended Duke drives. It was his first interception since his pick-six at California on Nov. 1, 2025, two weeks before he tore his ACL at Duke.
It wasn’t perfect. Eget threw for 211 yards in barely more than a half of football, and four completions of 28 yards or more (35 to Jonah Burton, 31 to Richardson, 43 to Jake Taylor and the 28-yard touchdown to Keefe) accounted for 137 of Duke’s 256 passing yards. With the game on the line, Duke went 75 yards in 1:46. But a defense missing three safeties held a team averaging 31.7 points per game to 19.
Jekail Middlebrook set a career high, and the direct snap keeps working
I have called UVA out in the past for going away from Middlebrook seemingly for no reason when things were working. On Friday, Middlebrook ran 24 times for 117 yards and a touchdown. Both numbers were season highs by a wide margin (his previous bests were 17 carries and 95 yards against Syracuse), and the 117 yards topped his previous career high of 109, set at Middle Tennessee against Kennesaw State last season. It was his first 100-yard game in a Virginia uniform.
It came against a Duke run defense that entered 18th nationally, allowing 92.5 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry, and had given up only 11 runs of 10 yards or more all season. Middlebrook had a 20-yard toss that opened Virginia’s touchdown drive and a 21-yard run up the middle late in the second quarter. With Duke playing a lot of man coverage, there was room to run. After abandoning the run in the second half at SMU, offensive coordinator Des Kitchings stuck with it for 60 minutes this time.
The direct snap remains Virginia’s most reliable short-yardage play for the second straight year. After a second-down direct snap left Middlebrook just short of the goal line and a quarterback sneak was stuffed, Virginia brought in heavy personnel and snapped it to him again on fourth-and-goal for the touchdown, Virginia’s only one of the game. In the second quarter, facing fourth down near its own 36, Virginia went back to it, and Middlebrook pushed the pile for about 10 yards. That’s three direct-snap touchdowns in the last two home games.
The one caveat is the finish. Middlebrook hit 100 yards on his 16th carry in the third quarter. His last eight went for about 17, and a late direct snap in the red zone gained one yard.
John Rogers is a bright spot, but the passing game still can’t create chunk plays
There were a few positives, especially from the tight end room. John Rogers led Virginia with five catches for 65 yards, including a 27-yarder down the right side that set up the first touchdown. He caught a bootleg pass in the flat, the same play I’ve talked about for weeks that seems to always be open for five, and on the go-ahead drive he leaked out on play action for a first down. Rogers also gave Virginia a scare when he came up grabbing his right knee after a catch down the seam, but he walked off and returned. Dakota Twitty had Virginia’s best catch of the night, a 25-yard ball up the seam on four verticals that Pribula fit into a window so tight it seemed to surprise Twitty.
But Virginia’s longest completion was just 27 yards. Pribula went 15-of-24 for 158 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. On his best deep look of the night, a first-down shot in the second quarter to a receiver who had gotten wide open for a would-be touchdown, he was late on the read and missed. Virginia was bailed out by a pass interference call.
This is a season-long problem against conference opponents. Entering Friday, Virginia averaged 143.3 passing yards per game in ACC play, 128th of 136 FBS teams and behind every Power Four program, according to cfbstats. It was converting 25% of its third downs in conference games, last in the ACC, and went 5-for-17 on Friday. Pribula threw 11 touchdown passes in the first four games and has thrown two in the four since.
This simply isn’t acceptable, and questions have to be asked about why changes aren’t being considered.
When Duke went ahead with 1:14 left, I had no belief that Virginia could drive into range for a game-tying field goal, let alone a touchdown. It didn’t.
Pribula was better as a runner, but he looks lost in the pocket
The box score credits Pribula with 66 rushing yards on 21 carries, and that’s after five sacks were subtracted. It was the first time since August that he ran for more than 35 yards. He scrambled for 16 when nothing was open downfield, cut a bootleg upfield for seven on the go-ahead drive and opened the final drive with a 13-yard run.
His best throws came the same way: quick reads, rollouts and play action. The slant to Da’Shawn Martin against zone, the bootlegs to Rogers and the play-action leak were all on schedule. Any time he had to sit in the pocket and go through his progressions, it felt almost guaranteed to end in a sack. He was sacked five times, with cornerback Che Ojarikre getting two, and Virginia has now allowed 26 sacks this season. Even though the offensive line hasn’t lived up to its lofty preseason billing, Pribula is doing them zero favors by holding the ball for so long.
He was late on reads to Isaiah Robinson and Martin, had a pass batted down at the line, an issue all year, and took an intentional grounding penalty on second down in the red zone that turned a touchdown chance into third-and-17 and a field goal. In the third quarter, he had the ball knocked out while scrambling, and Duke recovered, his second straight game with a lost fumble.
The final drive summed it up. After the 13-yard run, Pribula took a sack that forced a timeout, sailed a throw to an open Martin with no pressure on him and, on fourth down, threw it up to nobody. Against Power Four opponents this season, he is now 83-of-141 for 934 yards and six touchdowns, 6.6 yards per attempt. Eli Holstein has not attempted a pass since the Delaware game, something I believe is malpractice.
Bonus: Daniel Sparks continues to be amazing
Sparks entered the night second in the country at 50.3 yards per punt. He punted five times for 281 yards, a 56.2-yard average, half a yard off the school record of 56.7 he set at Florida State three weeks ago. His long was 66, and two landed inside the 20.
Unfortunately, he is almost doing too well, as the punt coverage still isn’t matching him. KD Cotton returned two punts for 49 yards, including one Sparks boomed 15 yards over his head inside the 10 that Cotton brought back out to the 30. On the other side, Virginia’s return game failed to take advantage of a hobbled Kade Reynoldson, who was consistently hitting low “ground balls” that dribbled along the field for long Duke rolls.
Bonus: The fans showed up
There have been discussions about fan support, in particular following the game in Charlotte against West Virginia. No such discussions can be had about Friday.
By my eye, Friday’s crowd was the second-best of the season behind the sold-out opener against NC State, with a strong student turnout under the lights, and it let the coaching staff hear it on both conservative calls. Virginia also looked like a different team at home again. Its three losses away from Scott Stadium came by a combined 52 points. Friday it controlled the ball for nearly 39 minutes and led for most of the night. It still lost, ending a five-game home winning streak, but there is no doubt that this team plays its best ball at home.
What’s next
Virginia gets eight days before visiting No. 17 Wake Forest on Saturday, Oct. 31, then has a bye before closing with California, North Carolina and at Virginia Tech. At 4-4, the ‘Hoos need two wins in those four games to reach a bowl, and they are still winless away from Scott Stadium. The defense and Middlebrook gave them a formula Friday. The question is whether the coaching staff will be able to make the necessary adjustments to get them out of their offensive rut and be aggressive enough to capitalize on their opponents’ mistakes.