Days to go for polling, Brazil sees a lackluster election campaign
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With less than two weeks to go before voters head to the polls on Oct. 4, 2026, Brazil is experiencing a presidential election campaign that is much less heated than many would expect given the high-level of polarisation in the country.
The latest polling also suggest few shifts in the political landscape, dominated by incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his main right-wing challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of incarcerated former President Jair Bolsonaro.
But making predictions about Brazil’s presidential vote is a tricky business. In Brazil, voting is mandatory for literate citizens between 18 and 70 years of age, and if one presidential candidate doesn’t get to 50%+1 of the valid votes (not counting absentees and blank or invalid votes) in the first round, the field is narrowed to two candidates, who then face a run-off, scheduled for October 25, 2026.
The run-off is a very likely scenario in the current situation. But as a political scientist who has studied Brazilian elections for decades, I don’t think it’s safe at the moment to base analyses on existing second-round simulations, since about 30% of voters are still undecided in the first round, if spontaneous polls are to be trusted. Spontaneous polls ask voters who they would vote for without...