Here is the dire expected fuel price for October 2026
· The South African
South Africa’s motorists are facing another potentially painful fuel-price increase in October, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) figures showing petrol and diesel recoveries deep in the red.
The latest available CEF data, dated 14 September 2026, points to increases across petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin if the current trends continue through the rest of the month.
Visit somethingsdifferent.biz for more information.
Petrol 93 is showing an under-recovery of R2.29 per litre, while Petrol 95 is showing an even larger R2.41/litre under-recovery.
Diesel is also under significant pressure, with the 0.05% sulphur grade showing an under-recovery of R2.04/litre and 0.005% diesel at R2.41/litre.
Illuminating paraffin is showing an under-recovery of R2.56/litre.
What could petrol cost in October?
If the current petrol under-recoveries were carried through unchanged to the end of September, motorists could be looking at increases of roughly R2.29/litre for 93 Unleaded and R2.41/litre for 95 Unleaded.
That would put further pressure on pump prices after another substantial increase in early September.
The latest figures are particularly concerning because the current September prices are already elevated following the sharp adjustment that took effect on 2 September.
Government’s official September adjustment saw petrol increase by more than R1/litre, while diesel jumped by around R3/litre.
However, motorists should remember that CEF daily figures are not the final October fuel-price forecast.
The under-recoveries can still move considerably before the end of September, depending largely on international petroleum prices and the rand/US dollar exchange rate.
Diesel also facing another major increase
Diesel motorists could face increases of around R2/litre to R2.40/litre if the current CEF figures remain unchanged.
That would be another major blow for diesel users, particularly the transport and logistics industries, where fuel costs have a direct impact on operating expenses.
- Petrol 93: increase of R2.29 per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of R2.41 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R2.04 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R2.41 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of R2.56 per litre
Middle East conflict remains a major risk
The renewed pressure comes against a backdrop of continued volatility in global energy markets.
International oil and refined petroleum product prices remain vulnerable to developments in the Middle East, while disruptions to supply routes can quickly feed through into South Africa’s fuel-price calculations.
The rand’s performance against the US dollar is another crucial factor.
South Africa’s fuel-price system uses international petroleum prices and the exchange rate when calculating the basic fuel price.
October price could still change
The current numbers should therefore be viewed as a snapshot of where the October fuel price is heading, rather than a final prediction.
There are still more than two weeks of September trading data to be taken into account before the final adjustment is calculated.
If international oil prices fall or the rand strengthens, the under-recoveries could shrink.
Conversely, another surge in oil prices or a weaker rand could push the October increase even higher.
All of the new prices take effect from Wednesday, 7 October, and will remain in place until the next monthly adjustment.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices.
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products.
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $107.69 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.32/$.