NFL Week 1 Monday Night Football Best SGP Picks —Broncos At Chiefs
· Yahoo Sports
The Broncos took a big swing in the offseason by trading for Jaylen Waddle.
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Getty ImagesThe Kansas City Chiefs are looking to rebound from missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. They’re hosting the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football after their AFC West foe was the conference’s No. 1 seed and lost in the AFC Conference Championship Game.
It should be a close and entertaining contest. The biggest offseason additions for both teams could play a big role in deciding the outcome of the Monday Night Football game. They can shine, and overs for their receiving props are among the legs in the forthcoming three-leg same-game parlay (SGP). The final leg is an under for receiving yards for one of Kansas City’s top pass-catching options in recent years.
Monday Night Football SGP Picks: Broncos at Chiefs
- Jaylen Waddle Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Kenneth Walker III Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Rashee Rice Under 56.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook: +490
Jaylen Waddle (Denver Broncos - WR): Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
Jaylen Waddle has been one of the NFL’s most efficient wide receivers. Among 87 wide receivers with at least 750 routes since 2023, he is tied for 16th in targets per route run (0.25 TPRR), 27th in air yards share (31.4%), 11th in yards per route run (2.32 Y/RR) and eighth in first downs per route run (0.116 1D/RR). Those pristine numbers resulted in 4.3 receptions per game and 59.3 receiving yards per game.
His receiving yardage average is over his line of 56.5 receiving yards on Monday Night Football this week, but only slightly above it. However, Waddle has played with an undesirable mix of quarterbacks, in an offense that passed at a below-average rate, and shared the field with another alpha wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, for many of those games.
Since 2023, the Dolphins have ranked tied for 19th in pass rate over expected (0.1% PROE), while the league average was a 0.8% PROE. In Bo Nix’s two seasons as Denver’s quarterback, the team has posted a 4.5% PROE. Waddle has swung from a below-average passing offense to one of the NFL’s most pass-happy offenses. As a result, he should excel, starting by clearing 56.5 receiving yards on Monday Night Football.
Kenneth Walker could be in store for a larger workload with the Chiefs than he saw with the Seahawks.
Getty ImagesKenneth Walker III (Kansas City Chiefs - RB): Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs made a splash in free agency by signing Kenneth Walker III. He’ll add a dynamic running element to a backfield that’s lacked juice in recent years. However, Walker has also flashed his receiving chops.
Among 61 running backs with at least 250 routes since 2023, Walker is tied for ninth in targets per route run (0.23) and tied for fifth in yards per route run (1.63). Sadly, he’s only had a 35.3% route participation rate. Walker has still produced 2.5 receptions per game and 24.4 receiving yards per game, though.
Andy Reid and the Chiefs could ask more of Walker as a pass-catching weapon, and their sizable contract commitment to him suggests they’ll use him in a larger role than he’s been used in to this point in his career.
Short passes to Walker are also a way to get the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’s hands quickly on dropbacks instead of him scrambling around on his reconstructed knee. Using Walker on screens can also slow down Denver’s fierce pass rush against a line without starting left tackle Josh Simmons this week. Walker is a strong bet to eclipse 16.5 receiving yards in Week 1.
Rashee Rice had a suboptimal offseason.
Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesRashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs - WR): Under 56.5 Receiving Yards
Rashee Rice’s offseason hasn’t been ideal. Rice underwent offseason surgery to clean up his right knee in May, only one week before serving 30 days in jail for a probation violation.
He could conceivably have rust to shake off, but Rice has a potential issue with a new offensive coordinator and isn’t a good schematic fit for his matchup against the Broncos.
Eric Bieniemy is Kansas City’s new offensive coordinator, a position he previously held from 2018 through 2022. Matt Nagy is the only offensive coordinator Rice has played for with the Chiefs.
Among 99 wide receivers with at least 700 routes since 2023, Rice is 99th in average depth of target (4.91-yard aDOT), second in designed target rate (27.3%) and 35th in first-read rate (25.4%). Rice has functionally been used as a pivot from the running game, getting targeted close to the line of scrimmage to utilize his ability to run after the catch. He’s dependent on being schemed those short targets. It’s reasonable to question if Bieniemy and Reid will keep feeding him those targets with Walker in the fold as a more dynamic player with the ball in his hands.
On that point, there’s a sneaky positive correlation between Walker’s receiving yardage over and Rice’s receiving yardage under. If Walker is fed swing passes and targets near the line of scrimmage, those aren’t going to Rice.
Denver’s coverage tendencies are also bad news for Rice. The Broncos played man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (35.8%) last year. Among 93 wide receivers with at least 200 routes against man coverage since 2023, Rice is tied for 47th in yards per route run (1.67), much lower than his 3.21 Y/RR against zone coverage. Furthermore, Rice’s yards per route run has cratered to 1.18 after dropping his rookie season in 2023.
Rice will have involvement in the passing game, but the sledding on Monday Night Football will likely be too tough for him to eclipse 56.5 receiving yards.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com