On Vinicius, Diomande, and the dominoes of this transfer window
· Yahoo Sports
I was not planning on writing anything today, but, like every year, I plan to go on family holiday at the worst possible time when transfers are bound to happen. Shame on me. (To my defense, there is literally no ideal time in this industry to take a break. You would think after the World Cup / before the season starts it’s time for shut-eye, but really you need to be awake perpetually until you die here.)
Visit newsbetting.club for more information.
Alas, I’ll need to dust off some thoughts from an unexpected 24 hour whirlwind of Yan Diomande and Vinicius Jr news, and will be on call for an emergency podcast at any point this week.
We always knew this summer would be a huge cross-road for Vinicius Jr, and, by extension, the club. One turn either way and Real Madrid’s future could be vastly different. Commit to Vinicius, and you take a big bet on the Vinicius – Mbappe duo working after two years of it not working. If it doesn’t work again, you are handcuffed. Alternatively, you could make a big decision and part ways; not because Vinicius Jr himself is the problem, but because de-attaching yourself from one of Vinicius or Mbappe opens up a ton of tactical flexibility, and I mean, virtually endless tactical flexibility. The dominoes that fall if only one of them starts are endless. And, as we all know, between the two superstars, only Vinicius can realistically leave because of his contract situation and Florentino would rather skydive than give up on Mbappe after two years.
There is a third scenario which Real Madrid really want to avoid: losing Vinicius for free in 2027 when you could easily generate a ton of revenue now to fund players that could upgrade the squad and help a team built around Mbappe and Bellingham contend immediately.
I have harped on this drum for months: The decision needs to be made this summer. If Vinicius is to renew, it should be done now. If he is to leave, it should be done now. The last thing you want is for this distraction to linger until next summer. Peace of mind in this situation is important. You want to know now if you’re committing to this project long term, and if you’re not, you want to cut clean now to focus on the signings you need for the upcoming season.
It is not an easy situation at all, and me typing these thoughts on a keyboard make it sound much easier than it is in practice. First of all, Vinicius is a club legend — one of the best left wingers that’s every put on a Real Madrid shirt. There is also emotional attachment to him. Vinicius is one of us. We saw him grow up, electrify, go through horrific abuse, and eventually conquer Europe, blitzing through the continent on a three-year stretch that saw him become the most decisive player in the Champions League.
There is also the other angle: Vinicius is managed by ROC Nation, who are very very good (and that’s an understatement) at leveraging these situations. It may not be to Vinicius’s benefit to sign a contract now. Letting it linger might be to his best interest, and walking for free allows him to earn a big signing bonus. For this reason, it would not be surprising for Real Madrid to give him a renewing bonus to compensate for him potentially missing out on that next summer.
Another important point: People may not have correctly interpreted Ornstein’s report about Arsenal’s interest in Vinicius. And they assumed that bit of news, along with Real Madrid trying to finalize details on the signing of Diomande, meant the writing is on the wall.
Maybe, but maybe not, for a couple reasons: Arsenal have not actually put their interest in motion, and any deal with Real Madrid (and by all accounts they have not been in contact yet) will have to wait until Real Madrid meet with Vinicius at the end of the month.
Real Madrid signing Diomande doesn’t necessarily mean Vinicius is leaving either. Sure, he would be insurance policy if Vinicius left, but Diomande (or any right winger) was likely to arrive since Jose Mourinho likes to have a pure winger on each side of his 4-2-3-1. Diomande can play on the left, but he also can play on the right (and he loves that side and is damn good at playing there). Diomande is also way more of a pure right-winger than any of the other options that currently exist in the squad: Franco Mastantuono, Brahim Diaz, Endrick, etc.
I do have some reservation about spending big again on another (admittedly very promising) teenager after the scars from Mastantuono and some of the signings in recent memory, but that piece can come when that bridge gets crossed.
Whatever gets done in this transfer window has a huge butterfly effect for the next several years.