British Open 2026: 5 longshot bets I love for Royal Birkdale

July 14, 2026 · Yahoo Sports

Royal Birkdale is a massive property that went through extensive changes to further cement its positioning as one of the flagship Open Championship venues. The holes weave effortlessly through the dunes, creating an amphitheatre that is beautifully intimidating. This golf course is going to repeatedly ask players to make difficult, and sometimes uncomfortable decisions.

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Reports from the grounds of Birkdale indicate the setup is intensely firm. Players typically approach tournament prep focusing on where they want the ball to go. This week, it’s about where they want the ball to stop. Steep, hazardous bunkers protect the fairways and greens, making this tournament about controlling trajectory and distance. It’s going to take a blend of fearless shotmaking and strategic target lines to lift the claret jug in Northern England.

This brings about a simple question: Given the demands of Royal Birkdale, can one of the longshot contenders actually win The Open? The answer is yes, but I’m only considering players who have a strict combination of important boxes checked. Those include current form, links-golf prowess, major championship win equity, and a statistical profile that aligns with Royal Birkdale.

Read The Line's Joe Idone and John Haslbauer break down a longshot bet they love at Royal Birkdale:

Watch Read The Line's full betting breakdown of the British Open here.

Here are five longshots who fit the bill and have what it takes to win the 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale: Si Woo Kim

Andrew Redington

We are going to zig when others zag with our first selection. While many will discredit Si Woo Kim right away based on his Open Championship history, we’re going to turn a blind eye because very few players in this range of the odds board possess this level of current form and consistency.

Kim arrives fresh off a T-9 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open, with consecutive closing rounds of 66 at The Renaissance Club. I’m overlooking the history because Kim has never been this complete of a player, and it showed last week. His approach play all season has quietly been amongst the best in the world, and his trademark accuracy off the tee should help him navigate the treacherous fairways at Royal Birkdale.

Si Woo Kim has laid a foundation of confidence, with nine top-10s this season and carrying confidence in links conditions from last week into the final major of the season. The ball-striking has been too good to ignore at his price, and we’re hopeful that another player who makes their home base in Texas can dominate in the winds and tough conditions at Royal Birkdale once again.

Current best odds: 55-1, HardRockBet

Alex Fitzpatrick

Oisin Keniry/R&A

Expect to see the Fitzpatrick name and England flag on countless betting cards this week, but I’m guessing that many people will overlook Matt’s younger brother, Alex, as a serious contender. He quickly developed into one of the most complete young players in the game and arrives at Birkdale beaming with confidence in the midst of a career-making year.

The results since winning the Zurich Classic alongside Matt have proven his standing and worthiness on the PGA Tour. More importantly for this week, Alex Fitzpatrick’s game is perfectly built for this type of examination. He’s been one of the best tee-to-green performers in recent months, excelling through precision rather than overwhelming power.

Fitzpatrick is comfortable shaping appropriate shots in links conditions, and there is already some evidence that suggests that the biggest stage in England will not overwhelm him. He finished a surprising T-17 in his Open debut at Royal Liverpool in 2023. It’s become more than just raw potential for Fitzpatrick, and the breakthrough has already begun.

Current best odds: 66-1, BetMGM and Bet365

J.J. Spaun

Ross Parker - SNS Group

We know J.J. Spaun is equipped to handle the pressure and demands of a major-championship Sunday, when Spaun thrived in rain jacket and umbrella conditions to win the U.S. Open at Oakmont just 13 months ago, closing with a 32 on the back nine to take control of the tournament when it mattered most.

His record this season tells us that it was not just an isolated spike performance. Spaun won the Valero Texas Open in April, also in gnarly weather, and has since added strong finishes in several elevated events leading into this week. His disciplined approach of reliable ball-striking is an important component to winning at Royal Birkdale, and Spaun has the guts to attack certain pin locations when it is required.

There is something to be said about major-championship win equity and the self belief of knowing that you can close. Many players in this range of the board lack the recent form of Spaun but have also never accomplished something of this kind of magnitude. He’s done it before, and he can do it again.

Current best odds: 80-1, Fanduel

Brian Harman

Andrew Redington

Speaking of confident closers, Brian Harman being listed at 125-1 feels disrespectful. There is no flash, and his process can be agonizing to watch, but the inherent skills that made him the Champion Golfer of the Year in 2023 have not totally disappeared.

Harman’s victory at Royal Liverpool was not about a lucky weather wave or fortunate bounces. He ran away with the win by six shots. He also finished T-10 at The Open last year, providing more evidence that his prowess on links courses was not a fluke.

His current form is sneaky, but nothing spectacular. Yet, he’s continued to grind through making cuts and finding positioning on the weekend while in search of a hot putter. The severity of the fairway bunkers at Royal Birkdale will make many players lay back off the tee, creating a level playing field for a player like Harman to outplay them with his irons. His low ball flight is built for these conditions, so do not overlook a past champion at the fair price in triple digits.

Current best odds: 125-1, FanDuel Sportsbook

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PreviousNextPausePlayfalse Private Royal Birkdale Golf Club Southport, Merseyside, England

Site of Jordan Spieth's remarkable Open victory in 2017 where he went on a birdie-eagle-birdie-birdie tear on holes 14-17 in the final round, Royal Birkdale has also been the venue for past Women's British Opens, Ryder Cups, Walker and Curtis Cups. Three generations of the Hawtree design firm, oldest in the world, are responsible for Royal Birkdale. Patriarch Frederic G. did the present design, with its surprisingly flat fairways and docile greens between towering dunes, in 1931. Thirty years later, son Fred W. remodeled it, adding the now-classic par-3 12th. Forty years after that, grandson Martin revised the course for its 10th Open Championship, the tournament Spieth won, but now the curatorship of the course has been turned over to Tom Mackenzie of the firm Mackenzie & Ebert, who remodeled it for the 2026 Open. That included building new tee clusters, altering bunkers, completely remodeling the short par-5 fifth and adding a new, long par 3, the 15th, to replace the old par-3 14th that was taken out of play and converted to a short game practice area. View Course Gary Woodland

Michael Reaves

On command stingers that sprint down the fairways … Gary Woodland can produce them as well as anybody. His mind has returned to a healthier place in 2026, and his game has tagged along. Woodland won the Texas Children’s Houston Open in March in a highly emotional comeback story that we can all root for.

There’s plenty of reason to root for Woodland again this week at the ridiculous price of 250-1. He’s coming off a highly impressive T-7 in the U.S. Open on the demanding routings of Shinnecock Hills, and his power is a unique skill that few in the world possess.

The challenge will be controlling that power. That said, throughout his career, Woodland has excelled on less-than-driver courses, leaning into his ability to push long irons down the fairway with consistency. The bottom line is at this price, we are going to need near perfection out of Woodland, but he’s already proven that he can still win golf tournaments and contend in majors in 2026. That’s good enough for me to toss a few shekels at 250-1.

Current best odds: 250-1, Fanatics Sportsbook

Joe Idone is a Read The Line contributor and host of the Preferred Lines podcast.

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