Texans made a massive NFL Draft gamble to get Will Anderson Jr., and they were right

· Yahoo Sports

NFL Draft trade value charts exist for a reason. They’re a good, shorthand guide to inform whether teams are getting equal value in a trade or overpaying for the picks they’re getting.

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The charts don’t factor in what happens when a player becomes a superstar after they’re drafted.

By any draft chart calculation, the Houston Texans overpaid for the right to move up and take defensive end Will Anderson Jr. in 2023. They sent the 12th and 33rd picks in 2023, and first- and third-round picks in 2024 to the Arizona Cardinals for the third and 105th picks of the 2023 draft. The 2024 picks would up being No. 27 and No. 90 overall.

At the time, the trade drew mixed reviews for the Texans due to the cost. Three years later, as Anderson signed the largest contract in NFL history for a non-quarterback after three years of stellar play, it’s hard to say the Texans overpaid.

The Texans had conviction on a player and paid a large price to go get him. And they were right.

When the NFL Draft happens next week and trades are made, value charts will be brought up. The old chart, made famous by former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson (and available on Pro Football Reference), had the Cardinals winning that 2023 trade by a significant margin. The total value for the picks the Cardinals got was 2,600 points. The picks the Texans got were worth 2,284 points. And the gap only that close because Houston was far better than expected during the 2023 season, going 10-7, pushing their draft slot down. The trade could have been much more lopsided on paper if Houston’s record was close to its 3-13-1 record from the previous season.

But there might be a lesson to be learned by looking back at what Texans general manager Nick Caserio said three years ago. The team didn’t care about the charts. It felt strongly about Anderson as a player, and that’s all that mattered.

“Really the trade in and of itself is just about doing what we felt was best for the team and the organization, and trades are always a product or a function of the player,” Caserio told the media in 2023. “Just from our perspective, it’s not about what the points tell you on the chart. If you have conviction about a player and you want a player and you think the trade is the right thing for you to do, then you go ahead and do it, which is what we did.

“We’re certainly not worried about what the points are and what the trade chart says. I mean, it doesn’t really mean anything. So the trade was really driven more by, this is a player we thought would bring a lot of value to our team. So that’s why we went ahead and did it.”

Not every trade will work out as well as Houston’s deal for Anderson. Drafting is an inexact science and not every exciting prospect turns out to be one of the best defensive players in football, as Anderson has.

But maybe there’s something to be said about trusting your evaluation and ignoring conventional wisdom.

Will Anderson Jr. of the Houston Texans was part of a huge 2023 NFL Draft trade. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)Michael Owens via Getty Images

While Anderson’s $50 million per year extension is a stunning jump from Myles Garrett’s previous record of $40 million per season for non-quarterbacks, Anderson has earned the deal.

Anderson won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, then in year two he had 11 sacks and 12 last season. Anderson was named first-team All-Pro last season. He finished second in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year voting behind Garrett. There’s no question he’s on an elite tier of pass rushers. The Texans paid a lot on the extension but they’re getting a spectacular player at a high-value position. It’s too early to put Anderson in a Hall of Fame discussion, but he’s laying the foundation of that type of career. He has been that good.

In next week’s draft, there will be trades. Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said this week that he expects a lot of trades in this year’s draft because there aren’t many elite prospects and the grades on many of the top prospects could be similar between teams. And if those trades go down, the value difference will be debated.

It will be worth noting that a team could supposedly overpay and get it right if the player ends up being a star. Overpaying worked out pretty well for the Texans.

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