South African February fiscal surplus rose

South Africa’s February 2026 fiscal surplus rose by 12.7% year-on-year to R27.3 billion. This followed February surpluses of R24.2 billion, R20.8 billion and R8.1 billion in 2025, 2024 and 2023 respectively.

The SA Fiscal Surplus jpg is based on data provided by the National Treasury

The National Treasury data show that revenue grew by 9.5% year-on-year. This followed a 11.1% jump in January when gold and platinum prices reached record highs. The fiscal year-to-date increase is 10.4% year-on-year.

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Ordinarily, commodity prices do not move in large jumps or drops. However, the second US Presidency of Donald Trump is anything but ordinary. Due to his erratic policy making, commodity prices have been extremely volatile. This is reflected in the gold price, as gold is seen as a safe haven. The gold price reached a record $5 608.40 per ounce on 29 January 2026. It then eased to $4 203.30 per ounce on 23 March 2026.

Significantly, the National Treasury Budget assumption for the Brent oil price was a decline to an average of $61.60 per barrel in 2026 from an average of $68.30 in 2025. The price on Budget Day 25 February was $68.30 per barrel. It then soared to $113.14 per barrel on 19 March. This followed the attacks on Iran on 28 February.

February revenue detail

Obviously, higher commodity prices boost the profits of mining companies. That is one of the reasons why the February fiscal surplus rose. Corporate income tax rose by 14.4% year-on-year in February. Investors also gained as the withholding tax on dividends increased by 15.6% year-on-year. Accordingly, the fiscal year-to-date gain is an impressive 22.9%.

Evidently, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) had its best annual performance in 2025 since 2005. The all-share index grew by 37.7%. Consequently, some investors bought more shares, while others took profits. The result was a massive 60.5% year-on-year surge in the securities transfer tax.

As salaries tend to be adjusted only once a year, personal income tax only grew by 5.6% year-on-year in February. Christmas and performance bonuses boosted personal income in previous months. Resultantly, the fiscal year-to-date gain is 7.2% year-on-year.

Explicity, tax income from fuel levies rose by 10.8%. Airport departure tax added 8.2% to revenue. Customs duties rose by 7.5%.

Alcohol taxes

Beer was the winner with a 14.2% year-on-year jump in February. Spirits were the loser with a 12.6% year-on-year decline. Taxes on wine only nudged up by 0.3% year-on-year.

Illicit economy

The illicit economy is estimated to be worth R40 billion, but this is just a guess as it does not report any figures to state entities. The Consumer Goods Council of South Africa (CGCSA) has a far higher estimate at 10% of the economy or R760 billion.

Around three out of every four cigarettes sold in South Africa are illegal, which means that the government loses between R18 billion and R28 billion a year in tobacco taxes. Legitimate manufacturers cannot compete with smuggled cigarettes that cost between R10 to R20 a pack. Legitimate businesses have to pay at least R26.22 per pack in tax. The result is that thousands of farm and factory workers have lost their jobs, and their dependents face hunger.

The liquor industry estimates that illicit alcohol sales now makes up close to a fifth of consumption. This means a revenue loss of at least R16 billion a year. As the Consumer Goods Council of South Africa has warned, this exposes consumers to unsafe products, which could lead to deaths.

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