March Madness Sweet 16 and why this will be your Final Four

March Madness is now down to 16 teams, out of 361 Division I schools to start the season, who are still alive in the NCAA Tournament.

Last week featured wild comebacks, nail-biting thrillers, and one near-miracle shot at the buzzer.

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It was a lot of stress for some fans whose brackets were put to the breaking test before finally busting.

But if you went with chalk, all four No. 1 seeds survived and advanced.

Some had easier roads than others to reach the Sweet 16.

Now, we’re in for another fun, four-night frenzy that will finish Sunday night with the Final Four set for Indianapolis (April 4-6).

So, is 2026 destined to be like last year, when all four No. 1 seeds won their regions? Can the long-shot Texas Longhorns continue their improbable tournament run? Might one of the Midwest boys, Iowa or Nebraska, make it to Indy?

The answers are no, no, and no again.

I’m going with three No. 1 seeds and one No. 2 seed.

Brave, I know, but it’s simply that these are the four best teams in my eyes.

MORE: March Madness Sweet 16 power rankings

However, I am going blind, so who knows.

Here we go — and, just so you know, Illinois and Iowa State fans, I had a hell of a time not picking your teams to represent.

But in the end, there can only be quatro.

EAST: No. 1 Duke

Mar 14, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) reacts after being named tournament MVP after defeating the Virginia Cavaliers in the men’s ACC Conference Tournament Championship at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Before the 2026 NCAA Tournament began, I wrote about the Blue Devils: “They’re just too good, even in a loaded East region. Duke looks like a typical Blue Devils championship team from years — no, decades — past.”

Um, can I take that back? Duke looked vulnerable and beatable in both of their wins last week: a shaky victory over Sienna, followed by a tough challenge from TCU.

The banged-up Blue Devils better get it together against Rick Pitino’s Johnnies or else the Dookies are doomed for a premature exit.

The good news is that Duke center Patrick Ngongba II should be close to 100 percent healthy, while teammate Caleb Foster is still recovering from a broken foot and likely won’t play Friday night against the Red Storm.

MIDWEST: No. 1 Michigan

Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) dunks the ball against the Wisconsin Badgers during the second half at United Center. Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images

The Wolverines overwhelmed their first two opponents (Howard and St. Louis). Michigan is clicking on all cylinders, and I expect the headline after blasting Alabama will be: Wolverines roll Tide en route to Elite Eight.

Michigan’s elite D, depth, and All-American forward Yaxel Lendeborg will be too much for ‘Bama (10-point underdogs) and then barely beat Iowa State. If Cyclones star Joshua Jefferson can play on Sunday, though, Michigan will be in for a serious battle.

Overall, the bracket location and matchups couldn’t be much better for the Wolverines. The Midwest Regional will be played at the United Center in Chicago. That place will be rocking and rolling with Wolverines fans on Friday and Sunday nights.

It’s a geographically kind road ahead for Michigan.

WEST: No. 1 Arizona

Mar 20, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; Arizona Wildcats center Motiejus Krivas (13) and guard Brayden Burries (5) and forward Tobe Awaka (30) react with the bench in the second half against the LIU Sharks during a first round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The scrappy Utah State Aggies gave the Wildcats a bit of a scare last Sunday before finally closing the book on a possible Cinderella story.

Now, Arizona faces John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas showcases scoring machine Darius Acuff Jr., one of the most talented freshmen in the country not named Boozer.

The Wildcats do everything well, and they’re a deep, defensively tough team that should keep Acuff Jr. in check.

Duke, Michigan, and Arizona are the only teams left in the NCAA Tournament rated in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

SOUTH: No. 2 Houston

Dec 29, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard Mercy Miller (25) reacts with guard Ramon Walker Jr. (3) after scoring a basket during the second half against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Houston has a major advantage after breezing past Idaho and Texas A&M.

The Cougars, last year’s NCAA title runner-up, will play in Houston against No. 3 seed Illinois in what could be an epic Sweet 16 showdown.

I expect the winner of this game to reach the Final Four. Sorry, Cornhuskers and Hawkeyes fans.

The matchup against the Fightin’ Illini might be Houston’s toughest test all season. The Cougars are running into a team that has lost only five games since mid-December, four of them in overtime.

Still, Houston is hungry to return to the championship game.

Here’s a good article from the Houston Chronicle that includes this fascinating stat: Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, eight teams have returned to the Final Four the season after losing the national championship game.

Three schools — Duke (1991), Kentucky (1998) and North Carolina (2017) — won it all given a second chance.

Houston could become the fourth.

Illinois has lost only five games since mid-December, four of them in overtime.

Clearly, the toughest call was Houston. But with Florida eliminated, whoever wins this Sweet 16 heavyweight battle will oust either Iowa or Nebraska in the Elite Eight matchup and be off to Indy for the Final Four.

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